Kevin's Korner

This Republican Nomination race, has seen more up and downs then any previous one in my lifetime. It also precedes one of the most important general elections in my life time. President Obama has been a disaster for this country, and needs to be defeated.

Today, I would like to offer my endorsement of Newt Gingrich for President.

I realize, for some, this may seem ironic since I wrote last year I thought that Newt Gingrich can’t win. Well frankly, I have become convinced that he indeed can win the nomination, and beat President Obama in November.

Gingrich’s win in South Carolina was a big win. If social conservatives in South Carolina can look past his past marriage issues then I think most of the country very well can. Further, the attacks from the left wing media, just did not work against Newt. In fact, he turned those into a badge of courage so to speak.

I believe conservatives need a good alternative to Mitt Romney. For me, Romney is much too moderate, and his claims of “conversion” to the conservative cause, seem less then sincere. I do believe he would be a much better President then the present one we have, but I think conservatives have a better choice.

Now, some may say that former Senator Rick Santorum would be a better alternative. I do think, however, that South Carolina proved he will not be. With all the social conservatives in the GOP in South Carolina it should have been a state strong for Santorum. It was not.

It’s time for conservatives to make a decision, or we could see Mitt Romney as the GOP nominee.

I understand Speaker Gingrich is not the “perfect” conservative. However, his record is one that is better then former Governor Romney, in that regard.

Newt Gingrich has the experience, and the leadership abilities to make a good President.

We need a good leader in the White House, now more then ever.

With only days left until the Iowa Caucuses, the GOP race is tighter then ever. One poll, from Insider Advantage, has Paul,Romney and Gingrich all tied at 17%, with Santorum at 13%, Bachmann at 12% and Perry at 11%. That is about as close as it can get, without all the candidates being tied.

So, is there any front runner in Iowa now? Well, no there isn’t. Some other recent polls show Romney a point or 2 ahead of Paul, which is within any margin for error. Also the polls have swung widely for the last couple of weeks, so we really don’t know that much.

Even with all the hype, there needs to be some perspective put on all this. Winning Iowa may get your campaign a cash infusion and some momentum, but it is a long way from predicting the nominee.

Remember just four years ago, Governor Mike Huckabee and Governor Mitt Romney finished first and second in Iowa and yet Senator John McCain won the GOP nod.

In 1988, George H.W. Bush finished behind Senator Bob Dole and religious Broadcaster Pat Robertson in Iowa, yet he went on to win fairly handily. Even in 1980, Ronald Reagan failed to win Iowa.

This is not to say Iowa isn’t important, it is, but there are a lot of important stops after Iowa too. It sure looks like South Carolina and Florida will be huge for the GOP race coming up.

I must say, I am a little bit surprised by the total unpredictably of this race. It has never “settled” as some have said it would.

But taking a step back, I have to say it is enjoyable to watch something like this. It really is exciting for us “political” people to watch.

Also I just want to say, for the record, I have not endorsed anyone, and do not plan on endorsing anyone before the Iowa Caucuses. Not that anyone is waiting with baited breath for my endorsement, but a few people have asked so I just wanted to make that clear.

While Iowa may bring some clarity to this race, I really doubt it. I’m not saying this will go all the way to the convention, but it may be one of the most interesting races on the Republican side in a long while.

It seems that every week we have another “new” Republican Presidential front runner, only to see them crash and burn before the next one takes the lead. I guess that is about the only consistent thing about this race. We have had Mitt Romney, Donald Trump(though never a declared candidate), Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich all take at least a brief lead in National polls or at least in several state polls. Maybe it was just Ron Paul’s turn this week.

Earlier this Week, Representative Ron Paul from Texas, seemingly coming out of nowhere, jumped to the front of at least 3 Iowa Polls right before their Caucasus on January 3. Now, his old newsletters have come to the attention of the National Media and Social Media and it is stirring up a cloud of controversy.

In several articles of his newsletters, from the late 80′s and early 90′s, racist statements appeared. The newsletter was sent out under his name, but it isn’t clear who actually wrote the articles. Paul has said that he didn’t write the articles and disavows the contents. He claims he never read the newsletters, that others put it out in his name.

An interview with C-Span he did in 1996 however, seems to indicate that he was actively involved in the newsletters. He was certainly aware of the contents according to the interview.

http://huff.to/ry1uxe

In 1996, Paul gave an interview to the Dallas Morning News, where he is quoted as being very much aware of the comments. In fact, he is contending the content were “taken out of context”. At that time he answered as the author of the newsletter article, while today he claims he didn’t write them and knew little of any content from the newsletters.

http://bit.ly/svfdZw

On Wednesday, Representative Paul walked out on an interview with CNN when he was pressed repeatedly about the newsletter comments. Clearly he is uncomfortable with this issue and is unwilling to discuss the apparent differences in what he says now and what he said in the Mid-1990s.

It is unclear how this will affect Ron Paul’s campaign, but I suspect this will really hurt him. It is pretty clear that the media didn’t take the Paul campaign seriously, until these latest Iowa polls. I guess that is why these questions were not asked much earlier. This did come up briefly in his 2008 Presidential run, but again, the media never pressed him on the issue because he was never really in contention.

Ron Paul has always run “different” campaigns then most, so it is unclear how they will handle this, but they better act to diffuse this, and fast, or he will join the other Republican contenders whose light shinned bright, but faded quickly as they dropped off the radar.

As the Iowa Caucuses get closer, this debate showed the desperation some candidates feel, and the pressure and tension that they all feel. This may well be, the last big chance some of them, have to make a move in race.

Former Senator Rich Santorum had a decent debate. He makes a good argument about the U.S Manufacturing base, but his continued statements on how he “won” where others lost, in a Blue state is really strained. He lost his last race by a big margin, so maybe he needs to temper his claims a little. His claim that Rep. Bachmann fought and “lost” is really weak. I really don’t see any movement for him at all after this debate.

Governor Rick Perry did a good job, I thought. He seems to have recovered from all those bad debates earlier. Maybe the expectations have been lowered for him, but he was effective tonight. He hit both Speaker Gingrich and Governor Romney on the individual Mandate on the respective healthcare plans. I think Governor Perry appeared less nervous, perhaps. He even paid a compliment to Rep Paul, saying he inspired him to read more about the Federal Reserve and those issues. He showed a real good side there. Even so, I don’t think the effort will be enough to make a big difference. It is really going to be hard for him to break back into the top tier of candidates, and very little time to do it.

Governor Mitt Romney had maybe his weakest debate so far. Not entirely bad, but not as good as normal. His defense of Romneycare seems to be strained and his pitch about not being a “career” politician was pretty much smacked down by Speaker Gingrich when he said that Romney would have been one if he had “beaten Ted Kennedy in 1994″. He needed a real, strong debate tonight to try and stop Speaker Gingrich’s momentum, but he did not get it. I doubt he drops much either, but he may give up a few points in the polls.

Speaker Newt Gingrich had another strong debate. He fended off attacks effectively, and was strong on most answers. He stood by his comments, in an earlier interview, that the Palestinian people were an “invented people”. He is factually accurate, but was pressed if his comments would not be helpful. He basically said that Israel was being attacked regardless of what he might say. He also said that it was about time someone spoke “the truth” about the Middle East. That should play fairly well, but let’s face it, the economy and jobs especially, is what is on everyone’s mind the most. He also laid out a pretty clear plan to move the economy forward, but so have several other candidate. I think he solidified his double digit lead in Iowa and is the clear Republican frontrunner overall.

Representative Ron Paul had a decent night. It was surprising to see him get so many compliments by the other candidates. He explained the devaluing of our currency and other economic issues well, but I think some get a little “glassy eyed” when he speaks. His comments about members of Congress needing to take their oath of office seriously were, I thought, really good points. Again, i don’t think he did anything to make a major move in the polls, however it is worth noting that his poll numbers in Iowa have been up, and he may very well finish 3rd. Frankly, his numbers are so unpredictable right now, it is hard to say where he will really finish in Iowa.

Representative Michele Bachmann had an interesting night. I thought she was strong overall and she made the case for herself as the most conservative on stage. The “Newt Romney” Attacks, linking Speaker Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney were pretty funny, but the continuous mention of former Candidate Herman Cain was a bit odd. It is an obvious attempt to pick up some of his supporters, but she needs to keep the focus on herself a little more then that. I don’t know how it played in Iowa, but she did have a good night and may move up in the polls. Was it strong enough to move up into the top 3 again? I don’t think so, but maybe 4th is a realistic goal for her here.

It looks to me, that Speaker Newt Gingrich was the clear winner of this debate and he is still the person to beat in Iowa and probably the person to beat in the whole Republican nomination race.

Fox Channel 5 in Atlanta, is reporting that later Monday, businessman Herman Cain will endorse former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, for the Republican nomination for President. Herman Cain on Saturday suspended his campaign, after more allegations surfaced of an alleged 13 year affair. Fox 5 is the same source that broke that most recent story.

Fox 5 Atlanta:
http://bit.ly/sDXBtJ

This really, should not be a surprise. Cain and Gingrich have been friends for many years, and both are from Georgia. The “debate” the 2 had earlier, was a very friendly one. They had plenty of time to expand on answers, and no one else to disagree with, then each other. But mostly, they agreed on the basic issues and only attacked the Obama Administration.

It will be interesting to see how this endorsement affects the polls, especially in Iowa, where the Caucuses are now less then a month away. Early indications seem to hint that Gingrich will be a big beneficiary of Cain dropping out.

The Gingrich Campaign has announced a 2pm News Conference in New York, after Gingrich meets with businessman Donald Trump. The word is that is when the official announcement of the Cain endorsement will take place.

UPDATE 12/06/11:
Well obviously this endorsement didn’t happened as had been rumored. A spokesperson for Herman Cain said that no endorsement had been planned yet and that it was “news to them” of any impending endorsement.

I guess we just wait and see, but it would not surprise me at all if Mr Cain does, in fact, endorse Newt Gingrich in the near future.

Businessman Herman Cain

This was a very interesting forum tonight. It really was, more like a forum then debate, with the way it was run. The candidates each came out alone to face 11 minutes of question and answer sessions. The questioners were all Republican Attorney Generals of their state. The host, former Arkansas Governor and current TV host, Mike Huckabee ran the forum.

This forum was a really very different. It was like each candidate was coming in for a job interview. There was no negative infighting, instead any negative comments were directed at President Obama and his administration. We didn’t have any of the silliness we have when one of the questioners asks something like “Well Governor, so and so is right there what do you have to say to them ….”. It was a much more focused “debate”.

First up was former Speaker Newt Gingrich. I thought Speaker Gingrich did a very good job tonight. His response to the question on immigration was to be expected, but it did not sound “rehearsed”, he sounded genuine. He made a clear distinction, between those here for 20 or 25 years, and those who have come across the border illegally, recently. At one point, I thought Speaker Gingrich got a little frustrated by one of the questioners, but he stayed composed and fairly smooth.

Governor Rick Perry of Texas made no major mistakes, he seems to be getting a little better, but it might have been the way this forum was structured, that really helped him the most. He seemed a lot more confident this time around. I thought he was pretty good on immigration, and it helped that he mentioned Sheriff Joe Arpaio had endorsed him or would be endorsing him soon.

Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann did ok. She gave her support for abolishing the Department of Education, and said she got involved in politics, in part, to help get government out of controlling education. She really had nothing to lose anyway, with her current poll standings. It really will take a lot for her to get back into the race, but tonight won’t do that.

Congressman Ron Paul of Texas, I thought had a really good night. He was strong on his stand of the unconstitutionality of many of the federal governments programs, but the need for balance to phase in the changes he would like to make because it would be the only way to reform the system. I have to say, this really was a strong performance by Rep. Paul. He looked a lot more “common sense” when stating his positions tonight.

Former Senator Rich Santorum I thought had a good night as well. I do disagree with his statement that “you can’t have 50 states defining marriage”, because that is exactly what we do have and is something the Federal Government, in my view, needs to leave to the states. But he had a line in his closing that really stood out to me, “Some want a truce (on social issues) but a truce is not a truce, it is a surrender”. He had mentioned his Pro Life views on abortion a little earlier in that statement. That may end up being the “line” of the debate.

Former Governor Mitt Romney, was smooth and comfortable in this setting as well. He got a great question about debating Obama, and what would he say after Obama says my plan was based on Romneycare? He again was very evasive, yet would not repudiate his program, but once again, said he was “proud” of it. His answer has not, and will not satisfy fiscal conservatives in my view. It is really about time someone asked that question, that many of us, on the right, have been waiting for.

I think it is pretty clear,that Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, is now the front runner. With Herman Cain dropping out, he may pick up a good number of those voters, especially if Cain endorses Speaker Gingrich. We are only a month away from the Iowa Caucuses so time is short for any turnarounds. Governor Romney is still close in many polls, but I don’t think anything tonight changes the order of the race at all.

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich